North East England became prosperous thanks to trade. We had coal and iron ore; we exported coal to the south of England in ships. We built ships, wooden ones, then iron and steel ships as technology advanced. We were, and remain, an area dependent on trading, not just with the rest of the country, but with the rest of the world.

International trade brings benefits to everyone. The other Newcastle - the one in Australia - has an abundance of coal and ore deposits, which it has been exporting to growing economies across (mainly) the southern hemisphere. This supply of cheap energy has fuelled these economies, such that they have been able to industrialise at a phenomenal rate, becoming the new workshops of the world.

International trade is facilitated by two key services - finance and transportation. OK, perhaps the finance part has rather overstretched itself in the boom times, and the transportation and shipping side is slowing down as levels of trade aren't expanding. But I believe they will start to expand again, and soon.

My A-level economics text book provided the answer. It's excess profit. Businesses are encouraged to remain in business by the opportunity to make a profit. An excess profit isn't something naughty - it's simply when businesses get a chance to make a profit greater than the norm. Economists say that when other businesses see someone making an excess profit, they are attracted to that market, and the extra competition brings profits back down to the norm again.

Just because there's a recession, and a shortage of finance, doesn't mean that there's a shortage of entrepreneurial skill and innovation. Businesses - people - will be driven by the chance to make a profit. Some of this will be in services. Much of it will involve products. The products will be made wherever entrepreneurs can get the right quality at the right price. And that will mean the goods will need to be moved from where they are made to where they are sold.

Yes, some sectors of the global economy will suffer badly, especially those where people and businesses can cut there discretionary spending. Instead of replacing your car every three years, you might replace it after four years instead. You might postpone replacing your computer. On a much larger scale, shipowners might defer replacing older vessels with new. But with many of these types of purchases, you simply can't put it off forever, because things ultimately wear out.

North East England has a proud history of being at the forefront of technological innovation. So what can we do to make sure that we're well placed to benefit from tomorrow's "next big thing"?

Politicians across the western world are beginning to speak with a united voice when they advocate infrastructure investment as being the best way of spending public money, not just to stimulate economies now, but to provide us with the right infrastructure to meet tomorrow's needs.

Sadly, in the UK today, infrastructure investment simply takes too long to plan and spend. The government appear to be waking up to this - bringing forward an order for new diesel multiple units for our railways, though it still has to go through the proper tendering procedures. Having said that, the economic case for placing the order with Bombardier's UK works in the Midlands must be overwhelming.

So, if this order can be pulled forward, can other infrastructure projects also be speeded up? The building of the A1(M) through North Yorkshire, the electrification of the Great Western main line towards Bristol, and the Northern Gateway container terminal on the Tees should all be good candidates for making an early start on these projects.

And these projects will begin to drive the rest of the economy. Build a new port terminal, and you need to start marketing it to pull in shippers to use it. The short and medium term construction jobs will prop up the rest of the economy now, helping to bolster retail spending.

We can't borrow our way out of the recession. In the longer term, we probably can't do it simply with public spending, either. It's innovation and entrepreneurship that will get the economy moving, and its innovation and entrepreneurship that we've got to support with infrastructure investment now.

So my prediction for 2009? I think that things will start moving again by the summer. People and institutions with money to invest will be chasing potential excess profit; innovators will be showing us how tomorrow's profits will be made, and the shipping industry will start gearing up to move raw materials to factories and finished products to consumers. The cold weather will be gone, the sunshine will be warm and we'll all start feeling good again.

And on that upbeat note, I shall wish everyone a happy and prosperous New Year.

PS: If you still need a 2009 calendar, you can download a railway-related one for free from here.