Flu fears

By William Green on Apr 28, 09 08:24 AM

As with all types of flu, the effect and spread of swine flu is far from predictable. And it is important not to scare-monger when the situation is unclear.

But when the World Health Organisation (WHO) raises the global alert, it is time to sit up - after all they are the experts and should know what they are talking about.

The alarm has been raised to four out of a scale of six, with the WHO saying: "Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a foregone conclusion." Click here to see the WHO latest.

And it means measures to deal with the potential risk of a pandemic here could soon kick in. Click here to see my story on the issue.

But the seriousness of the situation is underlined by official fears that between 600 and 3,800 people could die a week at the height of a mass flu outbreak lasting nearly four months in Tyne and Wear and Northumberland.

Up to 22,000 people could contract flu a day at the height of any outbreak - which could affect services, schools and businesses.

These really are grim figures and officials have acknowledged that burial sites and cremation facilities could be overwhelmed, forcing other measures to be used.

That could include temporary shallow or mass graves, dual or mass cremation or mass refrigeration.

But the major plus point is that the country does seem well prepared for a pandemic with solid plans in place. Click here to access local blueprints to deal with a mass flu outbreak.

And the NHS has a stockpile of more than ÃÂ£500m-worth of the Tamiflu anti-viral drug which has proved effective on patients in Mexico, and scientists are working on developing a vaccine against the new strain.

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